Correlation is NOT causation

Greg Mankiw has a nice post on the topic:

It really pisses me off when people confuse correlation with causation. Here is what I just read in the Harvard University Gazette:

Researchers at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine tracked 1,055 medical students for 36 years. Compared with cooler heads, the hotheads were six times more likely to suffer heart attacks by age 55 and three times more likely to develop any form of heart or blood vessel disease.

The conclusion is clear: Anger is bad for you at any age.

No, the conclusion from the fact given is not at all clear. People who get mad more easily do so for a reason--a more stressful job, bad genes, or some other mysterious factor X. Maybe it is the X factor, rather than the anger itself, that is bad for you. Maybe reducing anger without changing X won't change health outcomes at all.

I am going to call the author and give him a piece of my mind. Just as soon as this pain in my chest goes away.

It pisses me off as well. My feeling is that human beings NEED to ascribe a cause to an effect (preferably one that validates their personal beliefs) -- however unlikely/not-exactly-correct that may be.

Anyone for chocolates?

It appears that going into a chocolate store and picking out a few freshly made pieces of chocolate to take home or to eat while strolling down the cobblestoned streets is a perfectly natural thing to do here in Belgium.

So I ventured into a chocolate shop and kept on adding different types of chocolates into my bag. My favorites were the champagne and cointreau truffles...The marzipan was good too.

Would you guys like some chocolate? I can mail it to you when I get back to the US. I plan on mailing some to my parents in India ( I don't know how well it will travel), so just ask if ya want some!

I've always loved fruit tarts and I always will love fruit tarts. This fruit tart was slightly different because it had a slice of peach in it. But it was yummy!

Pictures from Brussels

We interrupt regular blogging…

I received a note from a former professor of mine whom I’d asked to review my essays for grad school. And I am realllly, really lucky to have him do so for me. He’s provided really constructive comments and forced me to connect the dots in my essays. The American system of (college and higher) education is truly, truly outstanding (largely due to the facultorate), and I just want to say how very thankful and grateful l am for having had the opportunity to study here as an undergraduate and I want to express my overwhelming gratitude and the enormous debt that I have to the wonderful professors and professional staff who’ve gone out of their way to help me (academically as well as otherwise).

Applying for admission to MBA School is full of ups-and-down. On some days, I feel as if admission is possible. And on other days I feel as if I’m certain to get rejected. I’m in the midst of editing my essays, and I feel that my essays just don’t “sound” like me. They don’t express my dreams, hopes, and desires as well as I’d like them to. I’m very scared that they read like just another business school application – adequate, but uninspiring.

But then "Oh that a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a Heaven for?" - Browning

Here are some more pictures from my trip to Mechelen. I've got pictures of Brussels that I'll post later.

The town was decked up for a street fair.

The best ice-cream that I've eaten. It was soft and creamy and had Grand Marnier inside!

Mussels

Picture of the incomplete cathedral

Cosy restaurant which served the ice-cream mentioned above

Top 10 classical music downloads

Slate has a very snarky take on the top 10 classical music downloads from Itunes.

At No. 10 was the opening chorus of Carl Orff's 1936 cantata "Carmina Burana," a setting of lewd poems by a bunch of medieval monks whose only outlet for their desires was to put them in verse. In Latin. The track takes the solemnity of Latin and makes it defiantly impious and bellicose. And if there's anything people like in their religion these days, it's defiance and impiousness.

I guess he's not a fan of Andrea Bocelli:

With No. 5, the light started to dim and I couldn't see straight. Andrea Bocelli's "Con Te Partiro" held that position. This is in the classical section? Bocelli's tenor is, how do you say, unsupported and is about as operatic as Boone's Farm is fine wine. With its synthesizer-sounding string section and chorus, the song is high-class movie music. Like so many terrible tunes, I can't get this one out of my head, especially this mock-heroic modulation from G to A at the end. Ravel does the same thing at the end of "Bolero," so you know Bocelli's arranging team can ID a good model when they hear it.

Bocelli also had position No. 4, though there he had the star power of Céline Dion to help him out in "The Prayer," from Bocelli's Sogno album. Dion coos with an electric keyboard in the background before twittering in Bocelli's ear when he enters. Is easiest listening a genre?

And

Which brings us to No 1., an alternate version of "Con Te Partiro" featuring Andrea Bocelli and his perfect mate, the soprano Sarah Brightman, titled "Time To Say Goodbye." The arrangement includes the "Bolero" pattern on a drum throughout, along with Brightman's straight-from-a-phonetic-dictionary Italian. That, folks, is the sound of lousy vocal technique.

I find it amusing that Bocelli arouses so much passion. When I was visiting India two years ago, I rember seeing one of my mom's friends, an elderly mild-mannered gentlemen taking umbrage at my grandmother for announcing that Bocelli was "Kevo sojjju." That's gujarati for "Very good."

Me? I think Bocelli is quite relaxing at times! I love classical music and opera, but I don't put Bocelli in that category.

Yale courses for free

I've used some of the materials from a similar program from MIT. Ever since I left college, I've really missed the discussions, debate, and avenues to learn new stuff. The MIT materials made up for that a little and now there's soon-to-be stuff from Yale!

Greg Mankiw links to an article from CNN:

Yale University said on Wednesday it will offer digital videos of some courses on the Internet for free, along with transcripts in several languages, in an effort to make the elite private school more accessible.

While Princeton University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and others already offer course material online without charge, Yale is the first to focus on free video lectures, the New Haven, Connecticut-based school said.

The 18-month pilot project will provide videos, syllabi and transcripts for seven courses beginning in the 2007 academic year. They include "Introduction to the Old Testament," "Fundamentals of Physics" and "Introduction to Political Philosophy."
Yale courses for free

Steve Levitt agrees with Continental Drift!

Steve Levitt has a post on his blog about the "ridiculous rules" that aircraft passengers are subjected to and the TSA's attempt to keep the flying public scared. He even references The Economist article that I posted .

I often leave my iPod on, and sometimes (gasp!) my laptop, which I leave secretly running inside my briefcase. I am happy to report no problems so far.

Levitt's got the right attitude! I am amazed at how easily the public --and in particular the American public -- has been in given up civil liberties in an apparent attempt to retain the illusion of safety. The goal of terrorism is not necessarily the killing of innocents, but rather the creation of a fearful state that envelops a nation AFTER the attacks. The extension of Executive power, the racial profiling, the ease with which citizens give up civil liberties, and advocating torture as acceptable to name just four.

Or as Simon Jenkins of the Guardian put it:

What has changed, grotesquely, is the aftershock. Terrorism is 10% bang and 90% an echo effect composed of media hysteria, political overkill and kneejerk executive action, usually retribution against some wider group treated as collectively responsible. This response has become 24-hour, seven-day-a-week amplification by the new politico-media complex, especially shrill where the dead are white people. It is this that puts global terror into the bang. While we take ever more extravagant steps to ward off the bangs, we do the opposite with the terrorist aftershock. We turn up its volume. We seem to wallow in fear.

Yes, I have an interest in this because ever since the ban on liquid and gels in flights I waste 2 hours of my life having to check-in and retrieve my bag. And what's with the removing shoes at airports? I know that some knucklehead tried to smuggle explosive onto a plane in his boots, but it could have so easily have been in his boxers...and then what? Would TSA like to check in there too?

The stock-market moves on "fear and greed." It looks like most human behavior adheres to that theme.

Quotes that do a better job at expressing my thoughts:

"...They were born, they grew up in the gutters, they went to work at twelve, they passed through a brief blossoming period of beauty and sexual desire, they married at twenty, they were middle aged at thirty, they died, for the most part, at sixty. Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer, and, above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult...It was not desireable that [they] should have strong political feelings. All that was required of them was a primitive patriotism which could be appealed to whenever it was necessary to make them accept longer working hours or shorter rations. And even when they became discontented, as they sometimes did, their discontent led nowhere, because, being without general ideas, they could only focus it on petty specific grievances. The larger evils invariably escaped their notice..."

- George Orwell, "1984"

What happened to America as land of the free and producer of top-rate statesmen one of whom said:

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither. - Ben Franklin

Why I love The Economist (A continuing saga).

An honest airplane announcement:

GOOD morning, ladies and gentlemen. We are delighted to welcome you aboard Veritas Airways, the airline that tells it like it is. Please ensure that your seat belt is fastened, your seat back is upright and your tray-table is stowed. At Veritas Airways, your safety is our first priority. Actually, that is not quite true: if it were, our seats would be rear-facing, like those in military aircraft, since they are safer in the event of an emergency landing. But then hardly anybody would buy our tickets and we would go bust.

The flight attendants are now pointing out the emergency exits. This is the part of the announcement that you might want to pay attention to. So stop your sudoku for a minute and listen: knowing in advance where the exits are makes a dramatic difference to your chances of survival if we have to evacuate the aircraft. Also, please keep your seat belt fastened when seated, even if the seat-belt light is not illuminated. This is to protect you from the risk of clear-air turbulence, a rare but extremely nasty form of disturbance that can cause severe injury. Imagine the heavy food trolleys jumping into the air and bashing into the overhead lockers, and you will have some idea of how nasty it can be. We don't want to scare you. Still, keep that seat belt fastened all the same.

Your life-jacket can be found under your seat, but please do not remove it now. In fact, do not bother to look for it at all. In the event of a landing on water, an unprecedented miracle will have occurred, because in the history of aviation the number of wide-bodied aircraft that have made successful landings on water is zero. This aircraft is equipped with inflatable slides that detach to form life rafts, not that it makes any difference. Please remove high-heeled shoes before using the slides. We might as well add that space helmets and anti-gravity belts should also be removed, since even to mention the use of the slides as rafts is to enter the realm of science fiction.

Please switch off all mobile phones, since they can interfere with the aircraft's navigation systems. At least, that's what you've always been told. The real reason to switch them off is because they interfere with mobile networks on the ground, but somehow that doesn't sound quite so good. On most flights a few mobile phones are left on by mistake, so if they were really dangerous we would not allow them on board at all, if you think about it. We will have to come clean about this next year, when we introduce in-flight calling across the Veritas fleet. At that point the prospect of taking a cut of the sky-high calling charges will miraculously cause our safety concerns about mobile phones to evaporate.

On channel 11 of our in-flight entertainment system you will find a video consisting of abstract imagery and a new-age soundtrack, with a voice-over explaining some exercises you can do to reduce the risk of deep-vein thrombosis. We are aware that this video is tedious, but it is not meant to be fun. It is meant to limit our liability in the event of lawsuits.

Once we have reached cruising altitude you will be offered a light meal and a choice of beverages—a word that sounds so much better than just saying ‘drinks’, don't you think? The purpose of these refreshments is partly to keep you in your seats where you cannot do yourselves or anyone else any harm. Please consume alcohol in moderate quantities so that you become mildly sedated but not rowdy. That said, we can always turn the cabin air-quality down a notch or two to help ensure that you are sufficiently drowsy.

After take-off, the most dangerous part of the flight, the captain will say a few words that will either be so quiet that you will not be able to hear them, or so loud that they could wake the dead. So please sit back, relax and enjoy the flight. We appreciate that you have a choice of airlines and we thank you for choosing Veritas, a member of an incomprehensible alliance of obscure foreign outfits, most of which you have never heard of. Cabin crew, please make sure we have remembered to close the doors. Sorry, I mean: ‘Doors to automatic and cross-check’. Thank you for flying Veritas.”

If it's September this must be Belgium

I'm in Belgium (Mechelen), bad pun on a Eurovision song not withstanding. Europe feels like a fairyland; it's exquisitely beautiful, the food is heavenly, and the people very warm and giving. Europe has categorically repudiated the Anglo-Saxon/American notion of "time is money." I can't help but be struck by how effectively Europe has steered away from the trap of working very hard just so that one can buy material possessions. Over here, people take time to eat, drink, chat and chat with friends. All the shops are closed on Sundays and most shops close for an hour after lunch.

Adjusting for health-care, Europe has roughly the same GPD per capita as the US. It's no surprise that despite eating rich and heavy food and smoking quite a bit, people in Europe live longer than people in the US. That's because they don't get stressed out by working all the time, live in close communities, and walk/bicycle a lot.

I think I'm falling in love with Europe harder this time (yes, yes, I know I fall in and out of love much too easily, but that's a post for a different time!)

These folks were listening to an outdoor concert

Passion for life Just passion

In Europe, even the pigeons eat crepes

The view from the cafe where I had dinner Wanting to grow old together (one of my favorite descriptions of being in love)

Sounds from a recorder

Admissions Essays

I'm applying to graudate school and I've encountered the essay question(s). Greg Mankiw has an interesting post on the role of essays in admissions. He links to a professor at Johns Hopkins:

Yet if Harvard really wants to do something to make admissions fairer, it should consider doing away with the most inane and manipulable part of the present process: the application essay....the application essay has been corrupted from another direction: by wealthy parents who hire consultants for tens of thousands of dollars to game the system, "advising" students on their essays (i.e. writing them), and also arranging for just the right range of activities and "experiences" to make the essays compelling to admissions officers.

I'm inclined to believe that wealthy parents (or applicants) will always be able to "game" the system by hiring consultants or tutors which is especially unfortunate since education is what moves people up the income ladder.

My dream job

MR links to what seems to be at first glance an oxymoron -- For-profit charities.

I've always been a fan of using for-profit management techniques to spur development and promoting public/private ventures. Now Google has set up a charity, google.org, and seeded it with $1 Billion.

While we continue to define the goals, priorities and approach for Google.org, we will focus on several areas including global poverty, energy and the environment.

I've worked with non-profits and corporations in both India & the USA, and I KNOW that I would love to have a career with a not-for-profit that made better use of business management techiniques. I'm a big fan of The Bill and Melissa Gates Foundation, and I can't help but feel that Google's entry into this field ups the ante on Microsoft. But I love the notion of attempting to solve the BIG problems of the world instead of squandering the dough on fancy cars etc.

The Cats

I can't wait until I've saved enough to go on a safari in Africa.

More Snaps!

Teasing the Polar Bear leads to CD's value-judgement of the day - "I question her parenting skills."

Swans

These two were bobbing up & down in unision. Show-off

Isn't he pwetty?

Pandas!

So I was working late the last week just so that I could skidaddle early one afternoon and check out the Memphis zoo in Tennessee, USA.

I love seeing animals, though not often in zoos, but I heard the Memphis zoo had Pandas so off I went.

Here's the theme of the zoo (I guess it's a play on the origins of the name of the city.

Look at those sharp teeth!

Paradise is being buried in bamboos.

Don't they look majestic?

...though it was sad to see that such a sign was needed.

I could watch the animals all day long --especially the big and small cats. The cats were beautiful and incredibly gracefull to look at.